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This blog updates the book which was published Feb. 28, 2020.
The pandemic is over
Excess deaths, US, January 2020 to July 2023. Source: Our World in Data.The COVID-19 pandemic is over A lifetime ago--April 2020--I wrote the first of four blog posts on the coronavirus "Endgame." As we floundered through lockdowns and shutdowns and distancing and...
Lab leak vs spillover: Origin of COVID-19
Electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Public Health Images library, CDC, public domain.Where did SARS-CoV-2 come from? SARS-CoV-2 is the formal name of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. A key question about the pandemic remains, where...
Book Review: Nights of Plague by Orhan Pamuk
US cover of Orhan Pamuk's historical fiction novel Nights of Plague (amazon link)In 2006, Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature. In 2016, he started writing a novel about an epidemic of bubonic plague on a fictional Mediterranean...
Before COVID, There Was Flu
Photo by Alan Emery on UnsplashWill bird flu be the source of the next global pandemic? As a microbiology professor and a science thriller novelist, I’ve been fascinated by deadly plagues for a long time. My interest began when I discovered Richard Preston’s seminal...
Should You Get ANOTHER Booster Shot?
Sacramento County COVID case rate data, April 2020-March 30, 2022 (source)The US Food and Drug Administration has "authorized" second COVID-19 boosters for people 50 years and older. (STAT News) For most vaccinated Americans, a second booster would be a fourth dose of...
Are COVID vaccines a miracle?
Photo by Raimond Klavins on Unsplash"Narrative" is everything. "Narrative" means the context we put information in. It means the stories that we tell ourselves about the facts. In a less friendly way of saying it, narrative is "spin." Narrative defines our worldview....
Is Natural Immunity Better?
OpenClipart.orgNatural Immunity and Muscosal Antibodies A reader asked about a friend who is “monitoring his immune level” as a way to protect himself against COVID19 without getting vaccinated. This friend also believes “discussion about natural immunity is being...
You can’t just “follow the science”
Photo by Hans Reniers on UnsplashScience is a decision-making tool, not a decision maker As we slump into the endemic phase of the COVID19 pandemic, David Leonhardt of the NYT has perhaps improbably become my Common Sense COVID Hero. His essay today, "Follow the...
If I Had COVID, Why Should I Get Vaccinated?
A gap in protection. Courtesy of UnsplashAfter reading my article “Why Omicron Will Be The Last COVID Variant of (Major) Concern”, someone asked me about vaccination for people who have tested positive for the coronavirus, or who have actually had a symptomatic case...
Why Omicron Will Be The Last COVID Variant of (Major) Concern
Virus evolution illustrated as branches of a tree, from CDC video "Understanding Variants"In my last post, I argued “I’m not worried about another, more contagious variant emerging. Omicron is that variant.” I further argued that we were on the verge of achieving a...
COVID confused? Pandemic fatigued? Read this
Source: New York TimesWe all prefer clarity and simplicity. How nice it would be if life offered us simple either/or, good/bad choices. We crave simplicity so much that we impose it on complex situations and people: these kind of people are wrong, these kind are...
The Omicron Surge: Putting a number on fear
Rise of the omicron variant: Percent of coronavirus cases in US. Omicron (B.1.1.529) suddenly and completely outcompetes delta. Source: CDC https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportionsI’m getting loads of questions and hearing more pandemic...
Omicron panic: Let’s take it down a notch
Creative Commons, WikimediaPanic and outrage seem to drive most of our conversations today. The discovery of a highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus variant dubbed Omicron fits right in with this pattern. Everybody needs to calm down. You might think this is an...
Masks in schools
Photo by Kelly Sikkema on UnsplashA parent with a 9-year-old child in elementary school asks me, "Was wondering what would be my best source of action to get these masks off our kids already." Here's my reply: Dear ______, The public health decision to require masking...
Take that, ivermectin: Merck announces a COVID pill that actually works
Photo by Hal Gatewood on UnsplashAmid all the anger, overreaction, and polarization surrounding the coronavirus pandemic these days, you may have missed some excellent news. New antiviral drug Way back in April 2020 (link) I told you not to expect a cure for COVID-19,...
Vaccines and Bacon
Photo by Michelle @New Layer Photography on Unsplash This morning I visited my local farmers’ market, a favorite activity of mine. Here in California’s Central Valley we have access to a world-class assortment of the best fresh local produce. Today a new vendor had a...
Reader asks: Vaccines and fetal cell lines
Source: National Cancer Institute Visuals Online https://visualsonline.cancer.gov/details.cfm?imageid=11867Question I received: I am one of the pro-life people who believe had the two aborted fetus cells not been used, we would not have the current Covid 19 Vaccine...
Breakthrough infections and masks
Source: University of California Davis Medical CenterThe only certain things in life are death and taxes. Vaccines against COVID-19 may not be perfect (no vaccine is) but they are a very, very good bet. During initial clinical trials, the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer...
Coronavirus Pandemic Update: September 6, 2021
Source: US Centers for Disease Control https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycasesThree months ago, I thought my COVID pandemic blogging days were over. Unfortunately there is still plenty to write about. Today I'll begin a couple of posts to address...
Do vaccines work against the coronavirus delta variant?
Source: Virginia Department of Health https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/Delta, delta, delta. CDC internal reports. Breakthrough infections. Masks? Surge? You have questions. I have information, and...
If you’re obsessing about vaccine risk, you’re missing the point
The history of smallpox, public domain image from CDC Public Health Image LibraryI try to keep my finger on the pulse of online / social media conversations about the pandemic, and to respond to topics that are on people's minds. This week I'm seeing more than ever an...
One way or another, COVID immunity is coming to your body
The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, public domain image from CDCIf you have not yet been vaccinated against the coronavirus, I know some of you have your reasons. In this blog post, I’m talking to you. Some of you don’t really have reasons. Instead you have an identity so...
The coronavirus delta variant
Rise of the "delta" variant of SARS-CoV-2 Percent of cases for delta shown in purple Source: Trevor Bedford of Fred Hutchinson Institute, via Twitter SARS-CoV-2 Delta and other “variants of concern” People have been asking me questions about the “delta variant” that’s...
COVID good news from California
Percent of adults with at least one COVID vaccine dose. Data from June 4, 2021 Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/03/us/virus-vaccine-states.html?Vaccines enable progress in the fight against COVID Last night I met a Sacramento woman who is a...
The costs of vaccine refusal
This is who you protect when you get a vaccine. Source: National Cancer Institute, Bill Branson (Photographer). Public domain.Hubby saw a series of patients in his clinic last week, and an uncomfortable number of them have not been vaccinated against the COVID-19...
Pandemic Endgame: Final Chapter
MichaelMaggs / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)Victory for the vaccines {Author's note: This essay is from a US perspective. Forgive me for this parochial view. Other parts of the world are experiencing their own timeline.} Over a year ago in...
Me as guest on “Preferable” Podcast
Podcast Thank you Jayden Watkins for inviting me to share some important information about COVID vaccine safety, masking and the pandemic on your podcast (May 15, 2021, Season 2 Episode 4). Jayden's "Preferable Podcast" series normally focuses on spirituality, so our...
Are vaccine passports a good idea?
Photo by Lukas on UnsplashVaccine Passports Proof of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, or “vaccine passports,” have been suggested as a tool to let us safely resume some higher-risk activities while the virus is still present in our communities. Is this...
Two out of three ain’t bad: Rules for when you can skip the mask
Tara Parker-Pope, New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/well/live/covid-masks-outdoors.htmlOpen face in the open air: The "2 out of 3" Rule for Masking In a previous post I explained why at this time, being fully vaccinated does not mean you can ditch your...
Vaccinated but still wearing a mask: Why?
Some people who refuse the COVID vaccines argue there is no point to being vaccinated if you must still wear a face mask in public. I won’t address the problematic, underlying assumption—that the main (or only?) reason to be vaccinated is to escape the inconvenience...
Should I visit my grandchildren? Misunderstanding the vaccine 90% number
Photo by Dragon Pan on UnsplashI've been vaccinated. Is it safe to visit my grandchildren? I shared a recent Zoom call with a woman who is fully vaccinated against COVID-19. “Fully vaccinated” means she is at least 14 days past her second dose of one of the mRNA...
Is It Safe? Let’s talk about vaccines
COVID vaccination record, image courtesy of Department of Defense/Operation Warp SpeedJ&J is on hold. Are COVID vaccines safe? Some years ago I discovered a website that “provides an unbiased data clearinghouse” on the controversy and dangers surrounding...
A season of hope
Source: New York Times coronavirus tracker, February 21, 2021 link Season of Hope As my parish begins the season of Lent in preparation for Easter, we celebrate a nine-day “Novena of Grace.” This year the theme is Hope, one of the three theological virtues (along with...
Where did the flu go?
When does the flu season normally peak? It varies from year to year. Most often, it's February. Source: CDCWhere did the flu go? A friend shared a post purportedly from a pharmacist who has noticed that prescriptions for Tamiflu, the most widely prescribed drug...
Beginning of the End
I'm a little choked up as I write this: Hubby just got vaccinated. Today at the university hospital where he works, he was injected in his left arm with the first dose of a two-shot series to protect him against COVID-19. His muscle cells will absorb a carefully...
Swiss Cheese model of COVID prevention
From New York Times article Over on Nextdoor, people are (as usual) arguing about masks, in this case, at the local post office branch. The statement: My (grandpa, friend, aunt) wore a mask but still got COVID so masks don't work and I'm not going to wear one. The...
COVID vs Flu: Which is worse?
Soldiers from Fort Riley, Kansas, ill with Spanish flu at a hospital ward at Camp Funston. Public domain from Wikimedia A reader asked me to help them understand whether COVID is different from flu, and why we should care about a disease that 99% of people recover...
Risk Mitigation During the Winter Surge, and When to Quarantine
Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on UnsplashRisk Mitigation During the Winter Surge, and When to Quarantine Pretty much wherever you live in the United States, your risk of being exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has never been higher (November 23, 2020). When the virus...
Vaccines, natural immunity, and fetal cells
HeLa human fibroblast cells, image created by Tom Deerinck, NIGMS, NIH. Source: National Cancer Institute, public domainVaccines and Cells With the good news coming from phase 3 clinical trials, vaccines are on many people’s minds this week. Part of the conversation...
Pandemic Progress Report: November 10, 2020
Source: Tomas Pueyo on Medium (link)Yesterday was for celebration. Today is another story. Pandemic Progress Report, November 10, 2020 What a difference a week--or a day--can make. Just 7 days ago, I posted on FB the hospitalization and ICU statistics for COVID in...
Fantastic news: Does the Pfizer vaccine work?
Photo by Jeffrey Hamilton on UnsplashBest pandemic news to date I'm getting more excited by the minute as I write this. Pfizer (US multinational pharma) and BioNTech (German pharma) are collaborating on a COVID-19 vaccine. Today they announced efficacy data from their...
Is the cost-benefit balance shifting?
Photo by Sandie Clarke on Unsplash**ALERT: This post is about my opinions more than about science.** Results were just published from a poll (link to full report at site) of households in America’s four largest cities (NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston) to assess the...
A Tale of Two Pandemics: The end of coronavirus (part 2)
Source: FiveThirtyEight https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-and-democrats-see-covid-19-very-differently-is-that-making-people-sick/A Tale of Two Pandemics (part 2 of 2; link to part 1) The “two pandemics” are diverging. This has practical consequences for...
A Tale of Two Pandemics: The end of coronavirus (part 1)
Source: FiveThirtyEight https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-and-democrats-see-covid-19-very-differently-is-that-making-people-sick/A Tale of Two Pandemics My (elderly) parents just bought airplane tickets to spend Christmas with my sister, and they...
Reader requests: NEA school case tally, and too-sensitive tests?
Photo by Element5 Digital on UnsplashI received a couple of interesting questions from readers, about pandemic-related things they'd read or heard. Reader question #1: Can we trust the teachers' union on coronavirus case numbers? NPR ran a story about a new tracker of...
SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is possible
Repeat symbol courtesy of ClipArtKeyNew report proves SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is possible Today scientists in Hong Kong released solid evidence that a person can get COVID-19, recover, and later get infected again. Before you freak out, let's consider first that this...
Public health effort reveals how “structural racism” can impact COVID mortality.
A pulse oximeter (pulse ox) device measures the oxygen saturation of blood. Public domain image courtesy of Wikimedia."Structural racism" is vague. An article showed me how it actually can impact COVID mortality. People of color in the US have in general been hit...
Is the COVID death count exaggerated?
Excess deaths and the mortality of the coronavirus Even though the pandemic isn’t over, many Americans are over it, so to speak. During our semi-national, semi-lockdowns back in April we saw angry protestors demanding that their states be “liberated” from the...
Pandemic Progress Report: California & Australia, August 4
Pandemic Progress Report: Australia and Sacramento California, August 4 The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is global, but it's also intensely local. Every country, state, county, and community has its own history and trajectory. While the US has suffered in some ways from a lack...
“They’re just cases”
Estimate of the percent of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients Source: US federal government https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity#hospital-occupancyOne of my recurring themes in these posts is that reasonable, moral people can disagree about...
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