Hard to believe it has only been three days since my last post, when SO MUCH has happened in terms of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In the US, ever-greater efforts at social distancing are causing disruptions for pretty much everyone, and the economic outlook is worsening. WHO officially used the “p” word: it’s a pandemic. The news out of Italy is terrible. Testing for the virus is still a major problem in the US. Because so few tests have been performed, we really have no idea how many people are carrying the virus, or where they are concentrated. The fear level all over the internet has gone way, way up. Reading it all, scrolling through Twitter feeds, staring at world maps besmirched with giant red dots: I’m starting to feel a bit panicky myself.

A lot of people have asked me whether I think we’re overreacting. I see two different kinds of “overreaction”: actions and feelings. Are we doing too much? Are we excessively fearful?

For myself, the last 48 hours have definitely stoked my fear. Maybe for you, too. And that’s probably an overreaction, because that fear wasn’t driven by the epidemic itself. The serious effort at social distancing is what’s causing us stress. Which is kind of crazy, if you think about it. We’re taking bold action to slow the contagion. This should give us some calm or comfort. Instead, each new cancellation–SXSW; the NBA season; political rallies for the Democratic primaries; college final exams–feels like a drumbeat of doom. We are not entirely rational beings. These are battles on the road to victory but each one brings the pain of loss. The more I read about the things we’re doing right, the more I feel fear. 

But here’s the thing: even if many people are experiencing an emotional overreaction, that does not mean that the actions being taken are disproportionate to the threat. It’s like the old joke: just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t trying to get me. 

So what about those actions? Are decision-makers going too far? I’ll talk about risks, benefits, and uncertainty in my next post.

Get the scientific backstory on SARS-CoV-2 and emerging infections. Read my concise ebook “The Coming Pandemic” for free. If you like it, please share with others and leave a review on amazon.

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