Coronavirus Pandemic Update: September 6, 2021

Three months ago, I thought my COVID pandemic blogging days were over. Unfortunately there is still plenty to write about. Today I’ll begin a couple of posts to address the concerns and questions I’ve been hearing. In this post, I present a bunch of raw data about where we are in the fourth wave.

Where are we?

The graph above from the CDC shows where we (the United States) are in our 4th surge of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. We are experiencing the greatest number of new coronavirus infections since the winter peak of 2021.

Not everywhere…

The US is a large and diverse country. Nationwide statistics on the pandemic obscure regional or local variation. This was true in early 2020 when the northeastern states were swamped. Sirens blared constantly on the streets of New York and bodies piled up in refrigerated morgues, while rural Americans of Wyoming or Alabama looked around their quiet towns and asked if COVID was a hoax. It’s still true today, but the coin has flipped. Because of low vaccination rates in many rural counties, low population places are bearing the brunt of this surge more than urban centers. And the South is much worse off than New England. {Source: AP & Johns Hopkins University; article ran Sept. 3, 2021}

As expected, when you have more newly diagnosed virus infections, you’ll get more cases of COVID (the disease), and more cases of severe COVID that require hospitalization. (Source: NY Times)

These hospitalizations are also not evenly distributed across the country. {crisis in Mississippi, Alabama, Idaho}

{Source: AP}

The current surge in viral infections is second only to the darkest days of the pandemic, around New Year’s 2021. I think it’s important to note, however, that the current surge is definitely second place. I firmly believe for SARS-CoV-2, the worst is behind us. Thanks to vaccination and widespread natural infection in the US, we enjoy protection that was missing last winter. The current second-place surge is happening even though we’ve abandoned many social distancing measures that were in place last winter–a sure sign that community immunity has grown.

Why a surge?

1. The delta variant is highly contagious (more on variants in another post)

2. Failure to vaccinate enough people to put a brake on virus transmission in many communities

It’s super-frustrating to be in this position because the surge could likely have been prevented if our national vaccination rate had been significantly higher by the end of June. About 90% of all COVID hospitalizations now are unvaccinated people.

Here is a wonderful graphic representation of data from hubby’s hospital:

Data from elsewhere:

{Image Source: Science News}

Despite the widespread availability of free, safe, effective COVID vaccination to every American over age 12, here’s where we are: {Source: NYTimes; data from CDC}

Because of vaccination patterns, the average age of a hospitalized COVID patient in America has gotten younger.

Cases, sure. But what about deaths?

Back in 2020, people opposed to non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing measures) often argued that the number of cases didn’t matter because only old or sick people died of COVID. Therefore what mattered was deaths, not cases. If healthy young people were spreading the virus among themselves, so what?

That argument was always half true. True, that most infections by the coronavirus don’t matter to the individual. And if that individual was an otherwise healthy 24-year-old, they probably wouldn’t care. False, because asymptomatic infections in healthy young people inevitably contribute to very symptomatic infections in vulnerable people. You can’t perfectly separate one from the other.

The other half-truth embedded in that argument is this: a tiny percent of a large number can be a large number. Even if a tiny fraction of otherwise healthy young people die of COVID infection, if the number of infected individuals becomes quite large, then you will see healthy young people die needlessly.

A silver lining: Because most of the most vulnerable Americans (elderly) are vaccinated, we’re seeing fewer deaths relative to the number of newly diagnosed infections. In this fourth peak, we’ve got about half as many new cases but only about a quarter as many deaths as last winter.

It’s just so sad because a medical miracle could have prevented most of these deaths: vaccination works.

Coming soon: variants & what happens next; breakthrough infections and booster shots

Have you been vaccinated yet? Every American age 12 and up is now eligible.

In California, visit https://myturn.ca.gov/ to find appointments for a FREE vaccine near you.

Amy Rogers, MD, PhD, is a Harvard-educated scientist, novelist, journalist, and educator. Learn more about Amy’s science thriller novels, or download a free ebook on the scientific backstory of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging infections, at AmyRogers.com.