My selected coronavirus report today is the figure you see above, which I found in today’s Washington Post, which cites the original source as something called The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team.

This is an example of how modern science works, and a good illustration of the powers we have to fight epidemics–powers made possible by scientific progress, information technology, strong public health institutions, and global cooperation.

When the new SARS cases first appeared in China in late December 2019/early January 2020, there were so many questions about the emerging virus and the disease it causes. Some were answered with miraculous swiftness–for example, the identity and genome sequence of the agent, SARS-CoV-2. Others are being answered now, and others will take much more time. Each answer helps us to make better decisions about how to respond to the pandemic in ways that are effective and reflect a proper cost/benefit ratio for society and individuals.

The data in this figure are from Chinese cases through February 11, so early in the epidemic, but probably still true (scientists have not yet seen any dramatic shifts in the gene sequence of the virus in different times and places).

This figure shows three key takeaways:

1. A lot of people, especially in middle age, were infected but survived. (This figure does not break down the severity other than death/not dead; estimates are about 85% of those infected will have mild or no illness.)
2. The oldest patients are at greatest risk of death. This is tragic but unsurprising, as all kinds of pneumonias typically behave this way.
3. Children are shockingly–and happily–resistant to both infection and death from COVID-19. I would speculate that the paucity of confirmed cases in people under the age of 20 probably means kids get the virus but show absolutely no signs or symptoms, so they were never tested.

This kind of information may help you to make decisions for acceptable risks to your family.

Get the scientific backstory on SARS-CoV-2 and emerging infections. Read my ebook “The Coming Pandemic” for free.

Share this: