Pandemic Progress Report: California, May 19
Pandemic Progress Report: California, May 19
I commend Gov. Newsom for his flexibility in dropping the “zero deaths” requirement for county reopening, and shifting the focus from raw case numbers to the number of COVID hospitalizations. In my opinion, keeping COVID-19 cases within hospital capacity is what matters. The number of cases isn’t so important because most of those cases will not require medical care, and the fraction requiring care or hospitalization is dependent on who is infected. A cluster of five cases among college roommates has different public health implications from a cluster of five cases in a residential senior facility.
Of course, hospital admissions are a lagging indicator of contagion by several weeks, so we must keep an eye on other measures of the pandemic to avoid being taken by surprise.
This courtesy of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, one of my trusted sources:
“California Governor Gavin Newsom announced an update to California’s plan that could potentially allow counties to move more quickly in their efforts to relax social distancing. Perhaps the most substantial change lies in updated epidemiological criteria for moving into Stage 2. Previously, counties were required to report “no more than 1 COVID-19 case per 10,000” population over the previous 2 weeks and no COVID-19 deaths over that same period. The updated requirements shift away from COVID-19 incidence and focus more on the impacts to healthcare systems. The new criteria require counties to have “stable/decreasing” COVID-19 hospitalizations—ie, less than a 5% daily increase—or no more than 20 total hospitalized COVID-19 patients over the previous 2 weeks. “
Amy Rogers, MD, PhD, is a Harvard-educated scientist, novelist, journalist, and educator. Learn more about Amy’s science thriller novels, or download a free ebook on the scientific backstory of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging infections, at AmyRogers.com.
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