Pandemic Progress Report: November 10, 2020

Yesterday was for celebration. Today is another story.

Pandemic Progress Report, November 10, 2020

What a difference a week–or a day–can make.

Just 7 days ago, I posted on FB the hospitalization and ICU statistics for COVID in Sacramento County. I said “Standing strong Sacramento” and used the phrase “not here!” in my caption. Well, there’s proof that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

On November 3, our county had 85 people hospitalized with COVID; 21 were in ICUs.

Today, November 10, those numbers are 136 and 27.

I knew this was coming because yesterday, hubby showed me internal data from his hospital, where they test everybody who is coming in for any treatment. For months, about 1 to 3% of people were testing positive. Yesterday, the number was 6.9%, the highest percent ever for the hospital. And the curve is exponentially upward. That means a whole lot of people are spreading the coronavirus and do not know it.

Sac County is not alone. It’s happening all over California, all over the US, all over Europe. The autumn surge is underway.

As a consequence, Sacramento County and many others in California got demoted from the “red” risk tier back to the doghouse of “purple.” This is terrible, depressing news, in particular for many businesses. No more indoor dining, just as the weather turns cold. No more going to church indoors, which probably means no more going to church. Gyms have to go back outside. And so on. (Hair and nail salons will, however, be allowed to continue operations with precautions.)

If misery loves company, we should be quite content. Europe was the pandemic darling in June and July. Now they’re in worse shape than the US. That’s the way viruses work. Unless exterminated, a respiratory virus will always come back if you let down your defenses. Likewise, with concerted effort, you can beat it down again. (If you’d like to read more about practical aspects of what Asian countries are doing right to manage the pandemic, read Tomas Pueyo’s excellent article on Medium [source of image above]. I’ve quoted Pueyo’s ideas before, in particular his “hammer” and “dance.”)

More than ever in this pandemic, I feel like I’m living in a thriller novel. We are on a roller coaster, and the ride is accelerating. Using the typical thriller structure, I’d say we are about 2/3 of the way into the story. At this point the author starts to really ramp up the tension. The stakes get higher, the protagonist gets more stressed, and the ticking of the clock gets louder. Yesterday, we got some of the best news of the pandemic: vaccines against it may be far more effective than we expected. I can now see what the ending will look like. But we have to live through the climax first. As in any good thriller, the villain is ascendant, and the hero is going to suffer. I’m confident of a triumphant resolution, but dark days lie ahead, and the body count is rising.

Amy Rogers, MD, PhD, is a Harvard-educated scientist, novelist, journalist, and educator. Learn more about Amy’s science thriller novels, or download a free ebook on the scientific backstory of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging infections, at AmyRogers.com.